
Furthermore it suffers from extreme mis-specification and multicollinearity issues which render its OLS estimates to be specious from any testing perspective. I argue that the “model” that Pippenger presents has nothing to do with the issues surrounding Uncovered Interest Parity (UIP). Pippenger (2011) has claimed that the paradox disappears when two additional variables are admitted to the familiar forward premium regression. Introduction It is always a great pleasure to consider some fresh insights into the long standing issue of the so called forward premium, or forward discount puzzle. The forward premium anomaly remains a paradox in international finance that is important and worthwhile to understand more fully. I also conclude that Pippenger’s model is not consistent with the theory of UIP and that furthermore there are severe econometric problems in estimating his model. I illustrate some of the issues involved by estimating a rolling regression of the forward premium regression from 22 years of eight major currencies.

Baillie a,b,c,∗ a b cĭepartments of Economics and Finance, Michigan State University, USA School of Economics and Finance, Queen Mary University of London, UK Rimini Center for Economic Analysis, ItalyĪrticle history: Received Accepted Available online JEL classification: C31 Keyword: Forward premium anomalyĪ b s t r a c t This note outlines the economic theory behind the theory of uncovered interest parity and some of the econometric issues involved in testing and interpretation. Possible solutions to the forward bias paradox夽 Richard T. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money j o ur na l ho me pa ge : w w w. and Money 21 (2011) 617–622Ĭontents lists available at ScienceDirect They do not encode information that is specific to the application software, hardware, or operating system used to create or view the document.Int.
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